| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
224 |
0.529 |
$118.43 |
$-41.94 |
-26.2% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
No |
118 |
0.910 |
$107.67 |
$17.38 |
+19.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
99 |
1.000 |
$98.63 |
$24.49 |
+33.0% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? |
No |
188 |
0.440 |
$82.82 |
$3.44 |
+4.3% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
208 |
0.356 |
$74.14 |
$2.93 |
+4.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
77 |
0.825 |
$63.88 |
$26.16 |
+69.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
79 |
0.785 |
$61.72 |
$33.73 |
+120.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
57 |
0.999 |
$57.08 |
$19.05 |
+50.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
54 |
0.999 |
$54.03 |
$14.05 |
+35.2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
59 |
0.890 |
$52.20 |
$12.23 |
+30.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
53 |
0.885 |
$46.76 |
$16.82 |
+56.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
49 |
0.940 |
$45.78 |
$13.12 |
+40.2% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
67 |
0.685 |
$45.66 |
$-4.33 |
-8.7% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.990 |
$39.56 |
$19.57 |
+97.9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5? |
Yes |
34 |
0.999 |
$34.12 |
$14.13 |
+70.7% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
33 |
0.988 |
$32.48 |
$17.03 |
+110.2% |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
275 |
0.115 |
$31.62 |
$-23.38 |
-42.5% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
45 |
0.635 |
$28.56 |
$-1.31 |
-4.4% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? |
Yes |
31 |
0.810 |
$25.31 |
$5.31 |
+26.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
63 |
0.400 |
$25.04 |
$0.75 |
+3.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.710 |
$21.84 |
$1.85 |
+9.2% |
| Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee? |
No |
76 |
0.285 |
$21.60 |
$1.61 |
+8.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6? |
Yes |
61 |
0.345 |
$20.89 |
$0.90 |
+4.5% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
84 |
0.245 |
$20.70 |
$3.80 |
+22.5% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? |
Down |
59 |
0.345 |
$20.25 |
$-0.79 |
-3.8% |