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Trader leaderboard/Lavincey

Lavincey

0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$72
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$32
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+1.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
39%
968W / 1,483L · 217 open
Win Return (30d)
36%
969W / 1,695L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
2,668
across 342 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
+$0.22
avg win $10 · loss $5
Profit Factor
1.07
$1,087 won / $1,015 lost
Reward / Risk
2.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$38
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $117,876 · all-time $34,152,755

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 38.8% 26,882W/42,394L 5830 $283,312
⚽ Sports 36.4% 3,473W/6,061L 672 $29,161
🌤 Weather 55.4% 93W/75L 40 $324
🏛 Politics 62.3% 162W/98L 29 $1,088
₿ Crypto 9.1% 6W/60L 10 $176
🎬 Culture 84.9% 118W/21L 9 $306
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/46L 6 $108
🤖 Tech 72.7% 8W/3L 2 $49
🔬 Science 0.0% 0W/6L 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 287 0.949 $272.67 $26.18 +10.6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 189 0.945 $178.95 $8.52 +5.0%
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes 802 0.175 $140.35 $-12.03 -7.9%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 149 0.935 $139.34 $5.22 +3.9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? No 135 1.000 $135.14 $93.47 +224.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes 247 0.463 $114.54 $8.65 +8.2%
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10-15%? Yes 640 0.170 $108.80 $7.01 +6.9%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs GenOne 292 0.365 $106.74 $5.37 +5.3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 111 0.951 $105.44 $0.74 +0.7%
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026? Yes 420 0.250 $105.00 $4.80 +4.8%
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 125 0.835 $104.38 $7.68 +7.9%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 310 0.275 $85.25 $-17.15 -16.7%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes 294 0.280 $82.29 $-24.36 -22.8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 231 0.355 $82.17 $-8.11 -9.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat? No 465 0.175 $81.38 $-76.89 -48.6%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 93 0.875 $81.26 $5.76 +7.6%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 80 0.991 $79.24 $0.04 +0.1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90 0.854 $77.09 $-2.95 -3.7%
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 81 0.932 $75.64 $10.96 +16.9%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 87 0.860 $74.99 $28.58 +61.6%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No 79 0.924 $73.24 $10.05 +15.9%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? No 120 0.595 $71.40 $37.80 +112.5%
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? No 120 0.594 $71.28 $43.02 +152.2%
Celonis IPO before 2027? No 80 0.890 $71.20 $8.80 +14.1%
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 78 0.875 $68.25 $40.91 +149.7%