Log in
Trader leaderboard/Lavincey

Lavincey

0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$91
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-4.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
50%
105W / 104L · 78 open
Win Return (30d)
49%
142W / 145L
Trades (30d)
287
across 87 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$1.86
avg win $5 · loss $10
Profit Factor
0.58
$128 won / $219 lost
Reward / Risk
0.44
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$74
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $117,876 · all-time $34,152,755

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 38.8% 26,882W/42,347L 5828 $283,270
⚽ Sports 38.0% 4,432W/7,224L 835 $34,873
🌤 Weather 43.0% 96W/127L 49 $400
🏛 Politics 62.6% 164W/98L 32 $1,111
₿ Crypto 5.5% 6W/103L 16 $189
🎬 Culture 84.9% 118W/21L 10 $314
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/46L 6 $108
🤖 Tech 72.7% 8W/3L 2 $49
🔬 Science 0.0% 0W/6L 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 287 0.949 $272.67 $26.18 +10.6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 189 0.945 $178.95 $8.52 +5.0%
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes 802 0.175 $140.35 $-12.03 -7.9%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 149 0.935 $139.34 $5.22 +3.9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? No 135 1.000 $135.14 $93.47 +224.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Yes 247 0.456 $112.81 $6.92 +6.5%
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10-15%? Yes 640 0.170 $108.80 $7.01 +6.9%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 111 0.951 $105.49 $0.79 +0.8%
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 125 0.840 $105.00 $8.30 +8.6%
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026? Yes 420 0.245 $102.90 $2.70 +2.7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 310 0.275 $85.25 $-17.15 -16.7%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes 294 0.280 $82.29 $-24.36 -22.8%
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat? No 465 0.175 $81.38 $-76.89 -48.6%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 93 0.875 $81.26 $5.76 +7.6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 231 0.345 $79.83 $-10.45 -11.6%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 80 0.991 $79.24 $0.04 +0.1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90 0.854 $77.09 $-2.95 -3.7%
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 81 0.932 $75.64 $10.96 +16.9%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 87 0.860 $74.99 $28.58 +61.6%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No 79 0.941 $74.58 $11.40 +18.0%
Celonis IPO before 2027? No 80 0.910 $72.80 $10.40 +16.7%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? No 120 0.595 $71.40 $37.80 +112.5%
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? No 120 0.590 $70.74 $42.48 +150.3%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner HANJIN BRION 217 0.315 $68.51 $10.34 +17.8%
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 78 0.875 $68.25 $40.91 +149.7%