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Trader

0x15e108b7a4ebc658bdbe2cd41ec1ca0ba8261b3d
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$49
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$12
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-7.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
42%
8W / 11L · 23 open
Win Return (30d)
32%
13W / 27L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
42
across 17 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$5.47
avg win $0 · loss $10
Profit Factor
0.03
$1 won / $51 lost
Reward / Risk
0.04
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,710 · all-time $77,266

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 50.7% 183W/178L 159 $9,974
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/1L 5 $308
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/1L 2 $115
⚽ Sports 2 $141
🤖 Tech 2 $128
🏛 Politics 1 $88

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Sergio Ramos attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 100 0.645 $64.50 $-2.50 -3.7%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 90 0.680 $61.20 $-9.00 -12.8%
Will LEVIATÁN Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026? No 80 0.675 $54.00 $-2.00 -3.6%
Will T1 Win KeSPA Cup 2026? No 95 0.505 $48.09 $-23.33 -32.7%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? Yes 105 0.450 $47.25 $-30.15 -39.0%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 70 0.625 $43.75 $-5.25 -10.7%
Will Brandon Lowe hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 45 0.925 $41.62 $1.17 +2.9%
Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 60 0.670 $40.20 $0.00 +0.0%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? No 40 0.972 $38.86 $4.86 +14.3%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes 60 0.610 $36.60 $-3.60 -9.0%
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026? Yes 55 0.645 $35.48 $-3.57 -9.2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? No 25 0.885 $22.12 $-0.12 -0.6%
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? No 35 0.465 $16.28 $-14.18 -46.6%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31? Yes 21 0.660 $13.96 $-4.10 -22.7%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? No 20 0.695 $13.90 $-1.10 -7.3%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July? No 15 0.755 $11.32 $0.22 +2.0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? No 11 0.545 $5.91 $-1.25 -17.4%
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Yes 5 0.295 $1.47 $-1.88 -56.0%
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more? Yes 15 0.018 $0.28 $-9.63 -97.2%
Will 6–7 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries? Yes 25 0.002 $0.04 $-3.84 -99.0%
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 24 0.001 $0.01 $-11.38 -99.9%