| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? |
Yes |
5,475 |
0.895 |
$4,900.35 |
$185.58 |
+3.9% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? |
Yes |
25,061 |
0.115 |
$2,881.96 |
$-2,147.26 |
-42.7% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? |
No |
3,796 |
0.355 |
$1,347.57 |
$635.05 |
+89.1% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? |
No |
3,439 |
0.370 |
$1,272.51 |
$-75.52 |
-5.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.455 |
$1,137.50 |
$-212.50 |
-15.7% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
6,946 |
0.143 |
$996.80 |
$381.48 |
+62.0% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
33,801 |
0.024 |
$811.23 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? |
Yes |
4,470 |
0.175 |
$782.26 |
$-277.26 |
-26.2% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9,000 |
0.085 |
$765.00 |
$-225.00 |
-22.7% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,972 |
0.385 |
$759.08 |
$172.04 |
+29.3% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? |
Yes |
3,570 |
0.175 |
$624.72 |
$-1,208.21 |
-65.9% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
Yes |
14,141 |
0.040 |
$558.58 |
$-384.35 |
-40.8% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? |
Yes |
6,096 |
0.085 |
$518.18 |
$-427.03 |
-45.2% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? |
No |
1,854 |
0.215 |
$398.59 |
$268.82 |
+207.1% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? |
Yes |
4,739 |
0.080 |
$379.16 |
$-252.39 |
-40.0% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? |
Yes |
8,248 |
0.036 |
$296.94 |
$-447.30 |
-60.1% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.022 |
$225.00 |
$85.00 |
+60.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? |
Yes |
995 |
0.210 |
$208.97 |
$59.70 |
+40.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? |
Yes |
3,118 |
0.064 |
$198.00 |
$-329.28 |
-62.4% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
15,068 |
0.013 |
$195.88 |
$-1,128.93 |
-85.2% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
Yes |
3,136 |
0.049 |
$152.08 |
$-663.01 |
-81.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
226 |
0.585 |
$132.33 |
$41.85 |
+46.2% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? |
No |
157 |
0.770 |
$120.74 |
$43.74 |
+56.8% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? |
Yes |
3,242 |
0.036 |
$118.33 |
$-76.18 |
-39.2% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? |
No |
1,151 |
0.085 |
$97.87 |
$-108.44 |
-52.6% |