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Trader

0x1516df6aecb4b039448590fdb9dcfd85c4183f5a
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$10
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$16
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-4.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
37%
10W / 17L · 93 open
Win Return (30d)
70%
83W / 35L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
120
across 57 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$0.77
avg win $5 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.65
$18 won / $28 lost
Reward / Risk
1.45
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $332 · all-time $12,921

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 56.2% 90W/70L 129 $1,958
🏛 Politics 100.0% 3W/0L 21 $78
💵 Economy 3 $36
₿ Crypto 2 $34

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

95 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 56 0.740 $41.19 $9.44 +29.7%
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? Yes 56 0.585 $32.94 $5.20 +18.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? No 39 0.825 $32.48 $10.32 +46.6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 29 0.885 $25.93 $1.70 +7.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 30 0.775 $23.00 $1.43 +6.6%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? Yes 28 0.725 $20.09 $1.62 +8.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? No 24 0.660 $16.13 $2.69 +20.0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? No 14 0.967 $13.74 $0.52 +3.9%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? No 15 0.900 $13.28 $0.15 +1.1%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? Yes 29 0.430 $12.51 $-0.23 -1.8%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? Yes 36 0.350 $12.47 $2.76 +28.4%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 29 0.415 $12.22 $4.12 +50.9%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 12 0.935 $11.32 $1.32 +13.2%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? No 26 0.435 $11.31 $-0.80 -6.6%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 49 0.230 $11.21 $0.20 +1.9%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 20 0.560 $11.21 $1.58 +16.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No 14 0.630 $9.06 $2.84 +45.7%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 9 0.960 $9.03 $0.36 +4.1%
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31? No 11 0.815 $8.80 $0.71 +8.8%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? No 12 0.670 $8.24 $0.25 +3.1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 25 0.290 $7.12 $0.25 +3.6%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? Yes 19 0.335 $6.48 $0.87 +15.5%
Will Keith Kellogg visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No 19 0.330 $6.38 $0.88 +16.1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.545 $5.71 $1.55 +37.1%
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 15 0.375 $5.50 $1.65 +42.9%