PnL (30d)

−$619

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$153

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

63%

237W / 140L · 139 open

Win Return (30d)

60%

309W / 207L

Trades (30d)

516

across 199 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$4.69

avg win $22 · loss $36

Profit Factor

0.72

$1,572 won / $2,192 lost

Reward / Risk

0.62

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$311

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	62.9% 237W/140L	199	$40,619
₿ Crypto	44.4% 4W/5L	22	$2,179
💵 Economy	28.6% 2W/5L	20	$1,827
🤖 Tech	—	2	$246

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

68 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	1,106	0.540	$597.06	$-2.94	-0.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	784	0.635	$497.82	$-2.18	-0.4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	452	0.994	$449.41	$49.41	+12.4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	479	0.785	$375.86	$-24.14	-6.0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	993	0.345	$342.49	$42.49	+14.2%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	335	0.997	$334.33	$64.33	+23.8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?	No	252	0.943	$237.56	$-0.44	-0.2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	249	0.935	$232.89	$12.89	+5.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	234	0.835	$195.08	$-4.92	-2.5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	524	0.365	$191.44	$-25.56	-11.8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	No	157	0.880	$138.29	$18.29	+15.2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August?	Yes	170	0.745	$126.97	$-23.03	-15.4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	124	0.925	$114.47	$14.47	+14.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Yes	1,841	0.060	$110.43	$10.43	+10.4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of August 3 2026?	No	110	0.998	$109.62	$9.62	+9.6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	109	0.971	$105.67	$5.67	+5.7%
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	117	0.905	$105.55	$5.55	+5.5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in August?	No	104	0.977	$101.77	$1.77	+1.8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August?	No	110	0.925	$101.65	$1.65	+1.6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?	No	105	0.964	$101.47	$1.47	+1.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	800	0.125	$100.00	$20.00	+25.0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	No	108	0.909	$97.80	$-2.20	-2.2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	141	0.635	$89.44	$-10.56	-10.6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in August?	Yes	104	0.840	$87.69	$37.69	+75.4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	500	0.175	$87.50	$37.50	+75.0%