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Trader leaderboard/ilovecarrots

ilovecarrots

0x03e1b2a5d7dc3685e6f6273842a32328d271e180
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$11
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-37.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
27%
3W / 8L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
33%
4W / 8L
Trades (30d)
12
across 5 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$2.80
avg win $10 · loss $16
Profit Factor
0.64
$20 won / $31 lost
Reward / Risk
0.64
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$0
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $10,036 · all-time $396,123

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 63.4% 601W/347L 383 $97,559
🏛 Politics 23 $9,224
💵 Economy 36.4% 4W/7L 17 $9,601
⚽ Sports 9 $408
🎬 Culture 8 $648
🤖 Tech 6 $645
🌤 Weather 60.0% 3W/2L 4 $60
₿ Crypto 100.0% 1W/0L 3 $108

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

132 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? No 90 0.944 $84.94 $3.02 +3.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No 100 0.775 $77.50 $4.50 +6.2%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? No 149 0.489 $72.88 $-6.70 -8.4%
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? No 220 0.282 $62.07 $-20.36 -24.7%
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? No 87 0.675 $58.66 $-0.43 -0.7%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 129 0.395 $50.85 $0.64 +1.3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 83 0.585 $48.55 $2.90 +6.4%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Yes 60 0.795 $47.91 $-0.54 -1.1%
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes 109 0.413 $45.16 $-4.67 -9.4%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 74 0.605 $44.48 $-5.51 -11.0%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 72 0.585 $41.93 $-3.23 -7.1%
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027? Yes 100 0.385 $38.50 $6.50 +20.3%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? Yes 60 0.630 $37.65 $0.26 +0.7%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? No 100 0.375 $37.50 $-3.50 -8.5%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? No 50 0.685 $34.25 $0.17 +0.5%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No 50 0.680 $34.00 $-1.50 -4.2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes 40 0.805 $32.20 $-0.20 -0.6%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? No 50 0.605 $30.25 $-0.25 -0.8%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-28 House seat? Yes 167 0.175 $29.23 $-4.17 -12.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat? No 200 0.145 $29.00 $-13.00 -31.0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Yes 54 0.505 $27.43 $-2.18 -7.4%
Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series? No 50 0.538 $26.93 $-0.07 -0.3%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 46 0.565 $26.22 $1.16 +4.6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5? No 25 1.000 $24.88 $9.45 +61.2%
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? Yes 34 0.705 $23.92 $-1.30 -5.2%