| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
5,995 |
0.835 |
$5,005.58 |
$540.92 |
+12.1% |
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? |
No |
1,853 |
0.865 |
$1,602.83 |
$310.40 |
+24.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,523 |
0.895 |
$1,362.69 |
$325.47 |
+31.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,267 |
0.999 |
$1,265.48 |
$403.50 |
+46.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.865 |
$1,037.97 |
$59.01 |
+6.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
840 |
0.945 |
$793.48 |
$62.85 |
+8.6% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
700 |
0.915 |
$640.50 |
$42.50 |
+7.1% |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? |
No |
700 |
0.886 |
$620.20 |
$17.10 |
+2.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
600 |
0.935 |
$560.97 |
$27.00 |
+5.1% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
600 |
0.900 |
$540.00 |
$53.00 |
+10.9% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.975 |
$487.25 |
$26.15 |
+5.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.963 |
$385.00 |
$13.00 |
+3.5% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? |
No |
300 |
0.948 |
$284.40 |
$14.10 |
+5.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
1,447 |
0.160 |
$231.52 |
$-190.14 |
-45.1% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? |
No |
197 |
0.905 |
$178.22 |
$6.89 |
+4.0% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
456 |
0.276 |
$125.63 |
$-30.18 |
-19.4% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
416 |
0.225 |
$93.52 |
$-30.12 |
-24.4% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
459 |
0.200 |
$91.85 |
$2.49 |
+2.8% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
104 |
0.860 |
$89.14 |
$4.25 |
+5.0% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
125 |
0.705 |
$88.13 |
$16.88 |
+23.7% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? |
Yes |
120 |
0.275 |
$33.00 |
$17.40 |
+111.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
894 |
0.033 |
$29.05 |
$-15.81 |
-35.2% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.220 |
$22.00 |
$-24.00 |
-52.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
300 |
0.070 |
$21.00 |
$-0.00 |
-0.0% |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
15 |
0.985 |
$14.32 |
$3.19 |
+28.7% |