PnL (30d)

−$12

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

32%

75W / 160L · 11 open

Win Return (30d)

32%

77W / 165L · 4 open

Trades (30d)

246

across 105 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.12

avg win $6 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.93

$149 won / $161 lost

Reward / Risk

2.44

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	32.5% 221W/460L	342	$2,679
🌤 Weather	78.6% 11W/3L	14	$33

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	17	0.200	$3.49	$0.30	+9.4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	3	0.455	$1.20	$0.20	+19.7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6?	Yes	3	0.375	$1.17	$0.17	+17.2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	2	0.435	$1.06	$0.06	+6.1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	10	0.075	$0.72	$-0.28	-28.1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.075	$0.38	$-0.62	-62.5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5?	Yes	9	0.001	$0.00	$-2.00	-99.8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 5?	Yes	7	0.001	$0.00	$-1.05	-99.7%