| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
6,861 |
0.950 |
$6,517.97 |
$1,546.87 |
+31.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
8,500 |
0.205 |
$1,742.50 |
$-648.03 |
-27.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
4,372 |
0.399 |
$1,742.35 |
$264.82 |
+17.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
42,464 |
0.029 |
$1,210.23 |
$561.12 |
+86.4% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
4,481 |
0.205 |
$920.91 |
$509.03 |
+123.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
3,378 |
0.255 |
$861.52 |
$52.59 |
+6.5% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
No |
800 |
0.885 |
$708.00 |
$260.00 |
+58.0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
728 |
0.905 |
$658.99 |
$247.29 |
+60.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,448 |
0.185 |
$452.81 |
$-742.65 |
-62.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
3,200 |
0.135 |
$432.00 |
$-887.90 |
-67.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
600 |
0.710 |
$426.03 |
$175.61 |
+70.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
375 |
0.815 |
$305.59 |
$169.94 |
+125.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
No |
311 |
0.875 |
$272.11 |
$189.24 |
+228.4% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
240 |
0.955 |
$229.52 |
$61.34 |
+36.5% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
No |
277 |
0.820 |
$226.77 |
$3.49 |
+1.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
2,152 |
0.095 |
$204.45 |
$-277.34 |
-57.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,622 |
0.054 |
$195.59 |
$4.96 |
+2.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.978 |
$195.52 |
$13.68 |
+7.5% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
1,379 |
0.136 |
$186.86 |
$48.99 |
+35.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
655 |
0.285 |
$186.71 |
$-200.75 |
-51.8% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
216 |
0.855 |
$185.10 |
$65.19 |
+54.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
191 |
0.945 |
$180.90 |
$51.55 |
+39.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
1,100 |
0.160 |
$176.00 |
$-440.00 |
-71.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
12,959 |
0.013 |
$161.99 |
$-1,092.16 |
-87.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
319 |
0.505 |
$160.88 |
$-6.93 |
-4.1% |