| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
6,861 |
0.930 |
$6,380.75 |
$1,409.64 |
+28.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
4,372 |
0.487 |
$2,131.48 |
$653.95 |
+44.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
8,500 |
0.215 |
$1,827.50 |
$-563.03 |
-23.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
42,464 |
0.032 |
$1,358.85 |
$709.75 |
+109.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
4,481 |
0.246 |
$1,104.65 |
$692.77 |
+168.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
3,378 |
0.290 |
$979.76 |
$170.83 |
+21.1% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
No |
800 |
0.885 |
$708.00 |
$260.00 |
+58.0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
728 |
0.905 |
$658.99 |
$247.29 |
+60.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
3,200 |
0.145 |
$464.00 |
$-855.90 |
-64.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,448 |
0.180 |
$440.57 |
$-754.89 |
-63.1% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
600 |
0.715 |
$429.03 |
$178.61 |
+71.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
375 |
0.765 |
$286.88 |
$151.23 |
+111.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
No |
311 |
0.885 |
$275.22 |
$192.35 |
+232.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
2,152 |
0.115 |
$247.49 |
$-234.29 |
-48.6% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
240 |
0.955 |
$229.52 |
$61.34 |
+36.5% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
No |
277 |
0.820 |
$226.77 |
$3.49 |
+1.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,622 |
0.054 |
$197.40 |
$6.77 |
+3.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.981 |
$196.12 |
$14.28 |
+7.9% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
1,379 |
0.138 |
$190.31 |
$52.44 |
+38.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
216 |
0.855 |
$185.10 |
$65.19 |
+54.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
1,100 |
0.165 |
$181.50 |
$-434.50 |
-70.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
655 |
0.275 |
$180.22 |
$-207.23 |
-53.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
191 |
0.940 |
$179.95 |
$50.60 |
+39.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
12,959 |
0.012 |
$155.51 |
$-1,098.64 |
-87.6% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
12,085 |
0.013 |
$151.06 |
$-142.13 |
-48.5% |