PnL (30d)

−$0

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

50%

4W / 4L · 16 open

Win Return (30d)

61%

14W / 9L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

24

across 14 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.07

avg win $1 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.82

$2 won / $2 lost

Reward / Risk

0.55

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	55.5% 66W/53L	72	$297
🏛 Politics	80.0% 4W/1L	10	$44
🎬 Culture	80.0% 4W/1L	4	$10
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$4
₿ Crypto	—	1	$1
⚽ Sports	0.0% 0W/4L	1	$2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

42 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	20	0.886	$18.16	$5.23	+40.4%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	12	0.987	$11.47	$0.02	+0.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	11	0.935	$10.37	$2.17	+26.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	7	0.915	$6.60	$0.61	+10.2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?	No	6	0.972	$5.99	$0.13	+2.3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	15	0.356	$5.32	$0.80	+17.7%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	5	0.987	$5.23	$0.13	+2.6%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	6	0.845	$5.09	$0.69	+15.8%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	5	0.953	$4.87	$0.22	+4.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	5	0.964	$4.61	$0.36	+8.5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	5	0.915	$4.60	$0.53	+13.1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	70	0.065	$4.52	$-16.52	-78.5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	4	0.978	$4.33	$0.33	+8.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	5	0.905	$4.16	$0.16	+4.0%
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	4	0.982	$4.09	$0.15	+3.8%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	4	0.996	$4.05	$0.35	+9.6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	5	0.845	$3.98	$-0.02	-0.6%
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	No	4	0.945	$3.91	$0.16	+4.3%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	4	0.935	$3.86	$0.35	+10.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	4	0.992	$3.81	$0.02	+0.5%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	4	0.886	$3.48	$0.10	+3.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	4	0.715	$3.18	$-0.20	-5.9%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	4	0.715	$3.00	$0.82	+37.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	15	0.155	$2.36	$-2.49	-51.3%
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	No	2	0.805	$2.01	$0.46	+29.8%