PnL (30d)

−$20

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$27

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-9.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

18%

8W / 36L · 22 open

Win Return (30d)

38%

25W / 41L

Trades (30d)

66

across 20 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.70

avg win $14 · loss $5

Profit Factor

0.58

$28 won / $48 lost

Reward / Risk

2.88

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$33

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	18.2% 8W/36L	20	$410
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/9L	2	$56

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	74	0.165	$12.24	$2.24	+22.4%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	14	0.585	$8.36	$3.36	+67.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	10	0.509	$4.91	$-0.09	-1.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	9	0.440	$3.79	$-1.21	-24.1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	24	0.045	$1.07	$-3.93	-78.6%