PnL (30d)

+$142

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$354

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

85%

205W / 37L · 125 open

Win Return (30d)

80%

292W / 72L · 3 open

Trades (30d)

367

across 71 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

+$3.83

avg win $13 · loss $26

Profit Factor

1.61

$374 won / $232 lost

Reward / Risk

0.52

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$7

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	84.7% 205W/37L	71	$18,857
🏛 Politics	—	3	$930

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	1,000	0.965	$964.50	$-2.50	-0.3%
Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	No	860	0.963	$827.83	$-2.58	-0.3%
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	No	200	0.925	$185.00	$-3.20	-1.7%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	No	92	0.930	$86.00	$0.92	+1.1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	No	92	0.850	$77.81	$-3.48	-4.3%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 22, 2026?	No	40	0.920	$37.08	$8.46	+29.6%
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	No	26	0.986	$25.44	$1.19	+4.9%