| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
271 |
0.925 |
$250.62 |
$0.97 |
+0.4% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? |
No |
244 |
0.994 |
$241.94 |
$5.46 |
+2.3% |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
202 |
0.995 |
$200.89 |
$1.72 |
+0.9% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? |
No |
301 |
0.645 |
$194.39 |
$-12.70 |
-6.1% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
181 |
0.954 |
$172.35 |
$2.08 |
+1.2% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? |
Yes |
259 |
0.590 |
$152.59 |
$14.70 |
+10.7% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? |
No |
126 |
0.880 |
$110.88 |
$2.52 |
+2.3% |
| Spread: FC Carl Zeiss Jena (-2.5) |
FC Carl Zeiss Jena |
221 |
0.495 |
$109.61 |
$29.89 |
+37.5% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.916 |
$92.00 |
$18.06 |
+24.4% |
| Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? |
No |
279 |
0.310 |
$86.48 |
$-6.26 |
-6.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? |
No |
366 |
0.235 |
$86.01 |
$-29.42 |
-25.5% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
299 |
0.271 |
$80.93 |
$13.35 |
+19.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
Yes |
281 |
0.280 |
$78.73 |
$-81.11 |
-50.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? |
No |
129 |
0.575 |
$74.27 |
$39.85 |
+115.8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
211 |
0.255 |
$53.85 |
$-3.24 |
-5.7% |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
No |
725 |
0.074 |
$53.64 |
$-243.09 |
-81.9% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
299 |
0.175 |
$52.41 |
$-49.19 |
-48.4% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? |
Yes |
299 |
0.175 |
$52.40 |
$-17.66 |
-25.2% |
| Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0%? |
Yes |
299 |
0.160 |
$47.87 |
$-55.60 |
-53.7% |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? |
No |
65 |
0.710 |
$45.91 |
$11.64 |
+34.0% |
| Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.850 |
$42.50 |
$15.00 |
+54.5% |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28? |
Yes |
159 |
0.260 |
$41.22 |
$10.42 |
+33.8% |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
386 |
0.105 |
$40.53 |
$-26.86 |
-39.9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 6? |
No |
81 |
0.470 |
$37.89 |
$0.80 |
+2.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? |
Yes |
141 |
0.215 |
$30.36 |
$-44.25 |
-59.3% |