| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
17,000 |
0.982 |
$16,685.73 |
$810.23 |
+5.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
14,122 |
0.835 |
$11,791.87 |
$959.97 |
+8.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
11,946 |
0.935 |
$11,169.59 |
$1,900.71 |
+20.5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
13,420 |
0.735 |
$9,863.76 |
$-303.17 |
-3.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
11,600 |
0.835 |
$9,686.00 |
$-527.99 |
-5.2% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
9,791 |
0.983 |
$9,619.73 |
$326.39 |
+3.5% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
9,661 |
0.823 |
$7,946.17 |
$503.41 |
+6.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
6,465 |
0.966 |
$6,244.81 |
$124.93 |
+2.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
5,272 |
0.989 |
$5,211.07 |
$167.84 |
+3.3% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
5,072 |
0.987 |
$5,003.31 |
$96.89 |
+2.0% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.984 |
$4,917.50 |
$75.39 |
+1.6% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
6,079 |
0.785 |
$4,772.00 |
$418.99 |
+9.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
4,829 |
0.959 |
$4,628.75 |
$2.41 |
+0.1% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? |
No |
4,432 |
0.925 |
$4,099.29 |
$332.38 |
+8.8% |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
3,173 |
0.985 |
$3,123.82 |
$58.63 |
+1.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
3,212 |
0.969 |
$3,111.30 |
$2.24 |
+0.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
2,933 |
0.930 |
$2,727.49 |
$146.64 |
+5.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
2,191 |
0.976 |
$2,137.80 |
$-1.10 |
-0.1% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.989 |
$1,977.00 |
$29.06 |
+1.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
2,075 |
0.710 |
$1,472.96 |
$12.64 |
+0.9% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
1,397 |
0.895 |
$1,250.28 |
$160.98 |
+14.8% |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,293 |
0.895 |
$1,157.65 |
$196.00 |
+20.4% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,898 |
0.545 |
$1,034.66 |
$97.06 |
+10.4% |
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
349 |
0.986 |
$344.52 |
$6.97 |
+2.1% |
| Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
190 |
0.985 |
$187.55 |
$4.67 |
+2.6% |