| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
17,000 |
0.981 |
$16,668.73 |
$793.23 |
+5.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
14,122 |
0.845 |
$11,933.09 |
$1,101.19 |
+10.2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
11,946 |
0.935 |
$11,169.59 |
$1,900.71 |
+20.5% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
9,791 |
0.983 |
$9,619.73 |
$326.39 |
+3.5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
12,448 |
0.735 |
$9,149.45 |
$-298.33 |
-3.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
10,600 |
0.835 |
$8,851.00 |
$-522.99 |
-5.6% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
9,661 |
0.823 |
$7,951.00 |
$508.24 |
+6.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
6,465 |
0.968 |
$6,254.51 |
$134.63 |
+2.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
5,072 |
0.987 |
$5,003.31 |
$96.89 |
+2.0% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
5,000 |
0.984 |
$4,917.50 |
$75.39 |
+1.6% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
6,079 |
0.785 |
$4,772.00 |
$418.99 |
+9.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
4,607 |
0.986 |
$4,540.51 |
$153.32 |
+3.5% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? |
No |
4,432 |
0.925 |
$4,099.29 |
$332.38 |
+8.8% |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
3,173 |
0.985 |
$3,123.82 |
$58.63 |
+1.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
2,933 |
0.920 |
$2,698.17 |
$117.31 |
+4.5% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.988 |
$1,975.00 |
$27.06 |
+1.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
1,415 |
0.965 |
$1,364.70 |
$-9.31 |
-0.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
1,397 |
0.935 |
$1,306.16 |
$216.86 |
+19.9% |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,293 |
0.905 |
$1,170.58 |
$208.94 |
+21.7% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,898 |
0.545 |
$1,034.66 |
$97.06 |
+10.4% |
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
349 |
0.986 |
$344.34 |
$6.79 |
+2.0% |
| Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
190 |
0.985 |
$187.55 |
$4.67 |
+2.6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? |
No |
118 |
0.922 |
$108.47 |
$16.75 |
+18.3% |