| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
4,583 |
0.930 |
$4,262.27 |
$673.93 |
+18.8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
3,483 |
0.890 |
$3,099.80 |
$450.30 |
+17.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
3,284 |
0.615 |
$2,019.56 |
$-247.44 |
-10.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,783 |
0.750 |
$1,337.50 |
$15.81 |
+1.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
970 |
0.949 |
$920.53 |
$25.33 |
+2.8% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
1,032 |
0.830 |
$856.20 |
$134.50 |
+18.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
493 |
0.650 |
$320.34 |
$-0.14 |
-0.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.870 |
$261.00 |
$9.00 |
+3.6% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
300 |
0.855 |
$256.51 |
$40.96 |
+19.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.850 |
$254.85 |
$21.85 |
+9.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
215 |
0.855 |
$183.82 |
$13.07 |
+7.7% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
200 |
0.760 |
$152.00 |
$-1.00 |
-0.7% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.675 |
$135.00 |
$23.00 |
+20.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
150 |
0.835 |
$125.25 |
$3.32 |
+2.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.543 |
$108.60 |
$-75.40 |
-41.0% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.895 |
$89.50 |
$3.50 |
+4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
150 |
0.320 |
$48.00 |
$-83.00 |
-63.4% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.920 |
$18.40 |
$1.40 |
+8.2% |