| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
4,187 |
0.950 |
$3,978.04 |
$693.30 |
+21.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
3,348 |
0.890 |
$2,979.46 |
$432.82 |
+17.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
3,284 |
0.615 |
$2,019.56 |
$-247.44 |
-10.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,783 |
0.750 |
$1,337.50 |
$15.81 |
+1.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
970 |
0.945 |
$916.16 |
$20.97 |
+2.3% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
1,032 |
0.830 |
$856.20 |
$134.50 |
+18.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
493 |
0.645 |
$317.88 |
$-2.61 |
-0.8% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.865 |
$259.50 |
$7.50 |
+3.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
300 |
0.855 |
$256.51 |
$40.96 |
+19.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.853 |
$255.75 |
$22.75 |
+9.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.825 |
$165.00 |
$2.07 |
+1.3% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
200 |
0.765 |
$153.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.675 |
$135.00 |
$23.00 |
+20.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.602 |
$120.30 |
$-63.70 |
-34.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
115 |
0.855 |
$98.33 |
$6.99 |
+7.7% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.895 |
$89.50 |
$3.50 |
+4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
150 |
0.285 |
$42.73 |
$-88.26 |
-67.4% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.905 |
$18.10 |
$1.10 |
+6.5% |