| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,141 |
0.915 |
$2,873.93 |
$115.94 |
+4.2% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
2,505 |
1.000 |
$2,503.29 |
$307.30 |
+14.0% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.555 |
$2,220.00 |
$220.00 |
+11.0% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
4,000 |
0.445 |
$1,780.00 |
$-220.00 |
-11.0% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
700 |
1.000 |
$699.65 |
$83.65 |
+13.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
600 |
0.465 |
$279.00 |
$-21.00 |
-7.0% |
| Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
300 |
0.670 |
$201.00 |
$-34.00 |
-14.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay |
Yes |
1,538 |
0.100 |
$153.85 |
$-46.15 |
-23.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
800 |
0.170 |
$136.00 |
$-160.00 |
-54.1% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
100 |
0.985 |
$98.45 |
$6.45 |
+7.0% |
| Squid FDV above $200M one day after launch |
No |
87 |
0.998 |
$86.49 |
$6.49 |
+8.1% |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.725 |
$72.50 |
$-2.50 |
-3.3% |
| Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? |
Yes |
247 |
0.180 |
$44.52 |
$-37.34 |
-45.6% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
Yes |
378 |
0.110 |
$41.61 |
$-38.39 |
-48.0% |
| Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch |
No |
297 |
0.135 |
$40.08 |
$-107.23 |
-72.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
Yes |
1,417 |
0.025 |
$34.71 |
$-180.29 |
-83.9% |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? |
No |
34 |
0.555 |
$18.64 |
$0.17 |
+0.9% |
| Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
16 |
0.800 |
$12.75 |
$-2.39 |
-15.8% |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.021 |
$8.56 |
$-11.44 |
-57.2% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
30 |
0.240 |
$7.20 |
$-12.00 |
-62.5% |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
96 |
0.060 |
$5.76 |
$-14.24 |
-71.2% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.052 |
$1.05 |
$-8.95 |
-89.5% |
| Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
1 |
0.480 |
$0.60 |
$-0.05 |
-7.7% |