| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,141 |
0.915 |
$2,873.93 |
$115.94 |
+4.2% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
2,505 |
0.964 |
$2,413.13 |
$217.13 |
+9.9% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.555 |
$2,220.00 |
$220.00 |
+11.0% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
4,000 |
0.445 |
$1,780.00 |
$-220.00 |
-11.0% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
700 |
0.966 |
$675.85 |
$59.85 |
+9.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
600 |
0.455 |
$273.00 |
$-27.00 |
-9.0% |
| Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
300 |
0.670 |
$201.00 |
$-34.00 |
-14.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
800 |
0.195 |
$156.00 |
$-140.00 |
-47.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay |
Yes |
1,538 |
0.100 |
$153.85 |
$-46.15 |
-23.1% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
100 |
0.983 |
$98.25 |
$6.25 |
+6.8% |
| Squid FDV above $200M one day after launch |
No |
87 |
0.996 |
$86.36 |
$6.36 |
+7.9% |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.725 |
$72.50 |
$-2.50 |
-3.3% |
| Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch |
No |
297 |
0.215 |
$63.83 |
$-83.48 |
-56.7% |
| Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? |
Yes |
247 |
0.180 |
$44.52 |
$-37.34 |
-45.6% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
Yes |
378 |
0.105 |
$39.72 |
$-40.28 |
-50.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
Yes |
1,417 |
0.025 |
$34.71 |
$-180.29 |
-83.9% |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? |
No |
34 |
0.555 |
$18.64 |
$0.17 |
+0.9% |
| Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
16 |
0.800 |
$12.75 |
$-2.39 |
-15.8% |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.022 |
$8.80 |
$-11.20 |
-56.0% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
30 |
0.240 |
$7.20 |
$-12.00 |
-62.5% |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
96 |
0.060 |
$5.76 |
$-14.24 |
-71.2% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.051 |
$1.02 |
$-8.98 |
-89.8% |
| Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
1 |
0.465 |
$0.58 |
$-0.07 |
-10.6% |