| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
71 |
0.380 |
$27.01 |
$17.06 |
+171.4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
29 |
0.905 |
$26.35 |
$26.35 |
+0.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
28 |
0.715 |
$19.82 |
$10.12 |
+104.3% |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? |
No |
20 |
0.962 |
$19.43 |
$9.53 |
+96.2% |
| Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? |
No |
31 |
0.595 |
$18.58 |
$8.90 |
+91.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
55 |
0.305 |
$16.86 |
$6.91 |
+69.4% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
62 |
0.255 |
$15.94 |
$5.94 |
+59.4% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
19 |
0.835 |
$15.60 |
$15.60 |
+0.0% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? |
Yes |
23 |
0.590 |
$13.56 |
$8.96 |
+195.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
25 |
0.545 |
$13.56 |
$3.61 |
+36.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
15 |
0.885 |
$13.55 |
$3.60 |
+36.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
47 |
0.285 |
$13.50 |
$3.55 |
+35.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
77 |
0.165 |
$12.63 |
$2.68 |
+26.9% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.830 |
$12.55 |
$3.41 |
+37.3% |
| Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series? |
Yes |
23 |
0.535 |
$12.33 |
$2.65 |
+27.4% |
| Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-08-05? |
Yes |
11 |
1.000 |
$11.36 |
$1.47 |
+14.9% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
16 |
0.723 |
$11.36 |
$1.41 |
+14.1% |
| Will Lazio Rome win on 2026-08-05? |
Yes |
12 |
0.935 |
$11.24 |
$1.38 |
+14.0% |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.746 |
$11.13 |
$1.18 |
+11.8% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
13 |
0.855 |
$11.10 |
$1.10 |
+11.0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? |
Yes |
40 |
0.275 |
$10.95 |
$1.00 |
+10.0% |
| Spread: Lazio Rome (-1.5) |
Lazio Rome |
13 |
0.845 |
$10.94 |
$1.10 |
+11.2% |
| Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-08-05? |
Yes |
12 |
0.875 |
$10.92 |
$1.19 |
+12.2% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House |
No |
12 |
0.885 |
$10.85 |
$0.92 |
+9.3% |
| Will Modena FC win on 2026-08-08? |
No |
11 |
0.976 |
$10.76 |
$0.84 |
+8.4% |