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FFFFFFFF9

0xf3338c0f5c52e48fbe883d731226b7820e70ba41
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$346
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$33
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-8.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
8%
21W / 244L · 133 open
Win Return (30d)
7%
21W / 277L · 100 open
Trades (30d)
398
across 138 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$4.03
avg win $0 · loss $5
Profit Factor
0.00
$1 won / $348 lost
Reward / Risk
0.03
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$101
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $112,399 · all-time $1,741,961

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 5.8% 178W/2,871L 1747 $244,966
🏛 Politics 6.1% 2W/31L 54 $10,106
🌤 Weather 2.3% 2W/86L 43 $2,361
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/28L 36 $4,607
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/4L 30 $2,889
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/14L 27 $4,141
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/6L 13 $933
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/2L 7 $1,398

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

22 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? Yes 200 0.445 $89.00 $-33.00 -27.0%
Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? No 400 0.205 $82.00 $-102.00 -55.4%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? No 62 0.605 $37.51 $-8.37 -18.2%
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes 100 0.340 $34.00 $-32.00 -48.5%
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? Yes 38 0.520 $19.50 $-8.62 -30.7%
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes 25 0.570 $14.25 $-3.00 -17.4%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? Yes 100 0.105 $10.50 $-51.50 -83.1%
Will Weibo Gaming be a 2027 VCT CN partner team? No 16 0.565 $9.32 $-1.73 -15.7%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No 40 0.230 $9.20 $-4.00 -30.3%
Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026? Yes 120 0.075 $9.00 $-30.60 -77.3%
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026? Yes 158 0.045 $7.10 $-16.57 -70.0%
Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July? Yes 50 0.140 $7.00 $-7.50 -51.7%
Will LOS Qualify for the CBLOL Split 2 Playoffs No 120 0.045 $5.40 $-22.20 -80.4%
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 79 0.060 $4.76 $-45.19 -90.5%
US x China tariff agreement by August 31? Yes 73 0.063 $4.59 $-9.99 -68.5%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? No 9 0.470 $4.23 $-1.17 -21.7%
Will Aaron Donald sign his next NFL contract by August 12, 2026? Yes 19 0.180 $3.42 $-5.70 -62.5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 6? No 2 0.675 $1.40 $-0.07 -4.9%
Will Kael Penta in LPL Split 3 2026? Yes 172 0.004 $0.69 $-6.19 -90.0%
Will United Russia win the next Adygea Parliament elections? No 93 0.007 $0.65 $-3.07 -82.5%
Will Genmo AI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026? Yes 67 0.003 $0.17 $-24.62 -99.3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5? No 4 0.001 $0.00 $-2.84 -99.9%