| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? |
No |
1,308 |
0.675 |
$882.58 |
$-9.58 |
-1.1% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
No |
978 |
0.750 |
$733.70 |
$29.27 |
+4.2% |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? |
No |
641 |
0.699 |
$447.79 |
$123.11 |
+37.9% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
461 |
0.905 |
$417.20 |
$29.67 |
+7.7% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? |
No |
507 |
0.775 |
$392.93 |
$73.51 |
+23.0% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
459 |
0.715 |
$328.46 |
$97.37 |
+42.1% |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? |
Yes |
1,277 |
0.230 |
$293.67 |
$25.33 |
+9.4% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,454 |
0.180 |
$261.68 |
$60.82 |
+30.3% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? |
No |
298 |
0.860 |
$256.71 |
$46.08 |
+21.9% |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? |
Yes |
554 |
0.430 |
$238.35 |
$56.00 |
+30.7% |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? |
No |
236 |
0.930 |
$219.20 |
$58.90 |
+36.7% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? |
No |
339 |
0.645 |
$218.75 |
$5.90 |
+2.8% |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026? |
No |
416 |
0.515 |
$214.48 |
$-88.97 |
-29.3% |
| Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? |
No |
209 |
0.950 |
$198.64 |
$28.10 |
+16.5% |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? |
No |
219 |
0.850 |
$186.15 |
$38.00 |
+25.6% |
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? |
No |
200 |
0.925 |
$185.00 |
$3.00 |
+1.6% |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? |
No |
570 |
0.245 |
$139.69 |
$4.15 |
+3.1% |
| Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? |
No |
131 |
0.955 |
$125.04 |
$3.68 |
+3.0% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
128 |
0.835 |
$107.08 |
$14.23 |
+15.3% |
| Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? |
No |
216 |
0.485 |
$104.71 |
$6.04 |
+6.1% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
110 |
0.585 |
$64.40 |
$-0.18 |
-0.3% |
| Will the Total Solar Eclipse be highly visible in Reykjavík? |
No |
80 |
0.640 |
$51.09 |
$19.72 |
+62.8% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
No |
3,139 |
0.013 |
$39.24 |
$-288.59 |
-88.0% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
48 |
0.785 |
$37.92 |
$16.67 |
+78.4% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
540 |
0.070 |
$37.55 |
$5.02 |
+15.4% |