| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? |
No |
1,308 |
0.680 |
$889.11 |
$-3.04 |
-0.3% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
No |
978 |
0.740 |
$723.92 |
$19.49 |
+2.8% |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? |
No |
641 |
0.700 |
$448.11 |
$123.43 |
+38.0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? |
No |
461 |
0.895 |
$412.60 |
$25.06 |
+6.5% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? |
No |
507 |
0.785 |
$398.00 |
$78.58 |
+24.6% |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? |
No |
459 |
0.725 |
$333.06 |
$101.97 |
+44.1% |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? |
Yes |
1,277 |
0.230 |
$293.67 |
$25.33 |
+9.4% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,454 |
0.180 |
$261.68 |
$60.82 |
+30.3% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? |
No |
298 |
0.855 |
$255.22 |
$44.59 |
+21.2% |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? |
Yes |
554 |
0.430 |
$238.35 |
$56.00 |
+30.7% |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026? |
No |
416 |
0.540 |
$224.89 |
$-78.56 |
-25.9% |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? |
No |
236 |
0.930 |
$219.20 |
$58.90 |
+36.7% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? |
No |
339 |
0.645 |
$218.75 |
$5.90 |
+2.8% |
| Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? |
No |
209 |
0.955 |
$199.69 |
$29.14 |
+17.1% |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? |
No |
219 |
0.850 |
$186.15 |
$38.00 |
+25.6% |
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? |
No |
200 |
0.925 |
$185.00 |
$3.00 |
+1.6% |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? |
No |
570 |
0.230 |
$131.14 |
$-4.40 |
-3.2% |
| Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? |
No |
131 |
0.949 |
$124.32 |
$2.96 |
+2.4% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
128 |
0.885 |
$113.50 |
$20.64 |
+22.2% |
| Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? |
No |
216 |
0.485 |
$104.71 |
$6.04 |
+6.1% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
155 |
0.585 |
$90.86 |
$-0.26 |
-0.3% |
| Will the Total Solar Eclipse be highly visible in Reykjavík? |
No |
80 |
0.595 |
$47.50 |
$16.12 |
+51.4% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
No |
3,139 |
0.014 |
$43.94 |
$-283.88 |
-86.6% |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
165 |
0.260 |
$42.95 |
$-11.86 |
-21.6% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? |
Yes |
66 |
0.570 |
$37.46 |
$-3.17 |
-7.8% |