| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,553 |
0.999 |
$1,551.83 |
$355.75 |
+29.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,539 |
1.000 |
$1,538.44 |
$368.64 |
+31.5% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
1,644 |
0.855 |
$1,405.47 |
$205.48 |
+17.1% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,624 |
0.853 |
$1,384.29 |
$184.30 |
+15.4% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
3,537 |
0.365 |
$1,291.03 |
$159.17 |
+14.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
1,319 |
0.945 |
$1,246.11 |
$46.15 |
+3.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,034 |
0.490 |
$996.54 |
$-61.01 |
-5.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
4,005 |
0.240 |
$961.31 |
$-238.67 |
-19.9% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
987 |
0.905 |
$893.09 |
$143.09 |
+19.1% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
853 |
0.978 |
$834.38 |
$75.08 |
+9.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
27,759 |
0.028 |
$763.38 |
$-41.64 |
-5.2% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
1,556 |
0.405 |
$630.07 |
$54.45 |
+9.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
1,391 |
0.425 |
$592.00 |
$18.78 |
+3.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
1,714 |
0.295 |
$505.70 |
$-683.02 |
-57.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
Yes |
8,415 |
0.060 |
$504.90 |
$-673.20 |
-57.1% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
381 |
0.665 |
$253.28 |
$17.14 |
+7.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
2,574 |
0.090 |
$231.68 |
$-900.97 |
-79.5% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
Yes |
4,984 |
0.044 |
$219.31 |
$-378.81 |
-63.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
364 |
0.575 |
$209.18 |
$-62.08 |
-22.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
1,351 |
0.145 |
$195.86 |
$-693.63 |
-78.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
1,679 |
0.110 |
$184.72 |
$-587.74 |
-76.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
389 |
0.235 |
$91.45 |
$-5.84 |
-6.0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? |
Yes |
4,861 |
0.013 |
$65.62 |
$-104.51 |
-61.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
3,115 |
0.020 |
$62.30 |
$-264.75 |
-81.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
No |
27 |
0.720 |
$19.46 |
$1.35 |
+7.5% |