| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,553 |
0.999 |
$1,551.05 |
$354.98 |
+29.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
1,539 |
1.000 |
$1,538.44 |
$368.64 |
+31.5% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
1,644 |
0.855 |
$1,405.47 |
$205.48 |
+17.1% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,624 |
0.852 |
$1,383.48 |
$183.49 |
+15.3% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
3,537 |
0.375 |
$1,326.40 |
$194.54 |
+17.2% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
1,319 |
0.945 |
$1,246.11 |
$46.15 |
+3.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
4,005 |
0.290 |
$1,161.59 |
$-38.39 |
-3.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,034 |
0.440 |
$894.85 |
$-162.70 |
-15.4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
987 |
0.905 |
$893.09 |
$143.09 |
+19.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
27,759 |
0.032 |
$874.41 |
$69.40 |
+8.6% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
853 |
0.977 |
$833.53 |
$74.22 |
+9.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
1,391 |
0.465 |
$646.95 |
$73.74 |
+12.9% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
1,556 |
0.375 |
$583.40 |
$7.78 |
+1.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
1,714 |
0.310 |
$531.41 |
$-657.31 |
-55.3% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
Yes |
8,415 |
0.060 |
$504.90 |
$-673.20 |
-57.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
2,574 |
0.100 |
$257.42 |
$-875.23 |
-77.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
1,679 |
0.145 |
$243.49 |
$-528.97 |
-68.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
1,351 |
0.175 |
$236.38 |
$-653.10 |
-73.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
381 |
0.610 |
$232.34 |
$-3.81 |
-1.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
364 |
0.535 |
$194.80 |
$-76.46 |
-28.2% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
Yes |
4,984 |
0.029 |
$142.05 |
$-456.07 |
-76.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
389 |
0.225 |
$87.55 |
$-9.73 |
-10.0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? |
Yes |
4,861 |
0.013 |
$65.62 |
$-104.51 |
-61.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
3,115 |
0.018 |
$57.62 |
$-269.43 |
-82.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
No |
27 |
0.705 |
$19.06 |
$0.95 |
+5.2% |