Quilty
0xee257b00fdc660243235dce9d909af16bdef7cd3
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$2
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$83
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
100%
1W / 0L · 31 open
Win Return (30d)
16%
5W / 27L
Trades (30d)
32
across 5 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
+$2.41
avg win $2
Profit Factor
∞
no losses yet
Reward / Risk
—
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,997 · all-time $962,735
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
812 |
0.145 |
$117.77 |
$-68.82 |
-36.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
No |
647 |
0.080 |
$51.75 |
$-19.38 |
-27.2% |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
835 |
0.060 |
$50.12 |
$-44.21 |
-46.9% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
354 |
0.090 |
$31.83 |
$-4.55 |
-12.5% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
99 |
0.290 |
$28.75 |
$-9.05 |
-23.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
291 |
0.036 |
$10.49 |
$-5.67 |
-35.1% |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? |
Yes |
52 |
0.044 |
$2.30 |
$0.21 |
+10.0% |