PnL (30d)

+$747

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$10

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

53%

2,676W / 2,370L · 199 open

Win Return (30d)

53%

2,686W / 2,370L · 189 open

Trades (30d)

5,245

across 1,587 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

+$0.51

avg win $4 · loss $3

Profit Factor

1.33

$2,986 won / $2,240 lost

Reward / Risk

1.24

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$55

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.9% 11,793W/10,103L	6523	$263,123
🌤 Weather	47.5% 504W/557L	384	$9,566
⚽ Sports	41.8% 165W/230L	236	$3,686
🏛 Politics	47.8% 88W/96L	63	$6,924
🎬 Culture	43.6% 61W/79L	40	$1,435
💵 Economy	34.0% 16W/31L	16	$3,550
₿ Crypto	63.6% 7W/4L	8	$172
🤖 Tech	3.8% 1W/25L	6	$217

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

38 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	27	0.993	$27.29	$27.29	+0.0%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	147	0.150	$22.08	$-9.18	-29.4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 5?	No	20	0.990	$20.11	$20.11	+0.0%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?	Yes	144	0.105	$15.17	$-3.76	-19.8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 5?	No	13	0.910	$11.81	$11.81	+0.0%
Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2026 NFC West?	No	10	0.515	$5.15	$5.15	+0.0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	2,497	0.002	$3.75	$-188.37	-98.0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 5?	No	27	0.125	$3.43	$-0.14	-3.8%
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.310	$3.10	$3.10	+0.0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	4	0.410	$1.68	$1.68	+0.0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	4	0.345	$1.41	$1.41	+0.0%
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?	No	97	0.015	$1.41	$1.41	+0.0%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	37	0.038	$1.41	$-0.07	-5.0%
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	3	0.309	$0.87	$0.87	+0.0%
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	14	0.058	$0.82	$0.82	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.076	$0.76	$0.76	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.072	$0.72	$0.72	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.063	$0.63	$0.63	+0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	15	0.035	$0.53	$0.53	+0.0%
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	30	0.015	$0.47	$-0.73	-61.2%
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	12	0.030	$0.37	$0.37	+0.0%