PnL (30d)

+$5,806

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$11

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

54%

11,788W / 10,094L · 1,225 open

Win Return (30d)

54%

12,160W / 10,379L · 568 open

Trades (30d)

23,107

across 6,523 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$0.98

avg win $10 · loss $9

Profit Factor

1.23

$30,805 won / $25,000 lost

Reward / Risk

1.09

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$539

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.9% 11,788W/10,094L	6523	$263,123
🌤 Weather	47.7% 504W/553L	384	$9,566
⚽ Sports	41.8% 165W/230L	236	$3,686
🏛 Politics	48.1% 89W/96L	64	$6,990
🎬 Culture	44.0% 62W/79L	41	$1,500
💵 Economy	33.3% 16W/32L	17	$3,562
₿ Crypto	58.3% 7W/5L	9	$180
🤖 Tech	3.8% 1W/25L	6	$222

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

34 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	27	0.991	$27.23	$27.23	+0.0%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	147	0.155	$22.82	$-8.45	-27.0%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?	Yes	144	0.108	$15.60	$-3.32	-17.6%
Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2026 NFC West?	No	10	0.515	$5.15	$5.15	+0.0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	2,497	0.002	$3.75	$-188.37	-98.0%
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.310	$3.10	$3.10	+0.0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	4	0.410	$1.68	$1.68	+0.0%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	37	0.043	$1.61	$0.13	+8.5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	4	0.345	$1.41	$1.41	+0.0%
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?	No	97	0.015	$1.41	$1.41	+0.0%
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	3	0.309	$0.87	$0.87	+0.0%
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	14	0.058	$0.82	$0.82	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.4% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.076	$0.76	$0.76	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.071	$0.71	$0.71	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.3% in 2026?	Yes	10	0.062	$0.62	$0.62	+0.0%
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,052	0.001	$0.53	$-41.55	-98.7%
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	30	0.015	$0.47	$-0.73	-61.2%
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	12	0.030	$0.37	$0.37	+0.0%
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	No	29	0.013	$0.36	$-15.71	-97.8%
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	13	0.025	$0.33	$0.33	+0.0%
Will MUNDO-GB win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Yes	13	0.014	$0.18	$0.18	+0.0%
Will world GDP growth be 3.7%+ in 2026?	Yes	10	0.014	$0.14	$0.14	+0.0%