| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat? |
Yes |
320 |
0.955 |
$305.60 |
$8.00 |
+2.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? |
No |
635 |
0.375 |
$238.05 |
$9.31 |
+4.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? |
No |
243 |
0.965 |
$234.05 |
$27.79 |
+13.5% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? |
Yes |
502 |
0.377 |
$189.14 |
$154.38 |
+444.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.630 |
$188.89 |
$-14.11 |
-6.9% |
| Will Trump say "COVID" or "Warp Speed" during remarks in Las Vegas? |
No |
243 |
0.630 |
$153.09 |
$-0.75 |
-0.5% |
| Will Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? |
Yes |
235 |
0.344 |
$80.90 |
$-18.97 |
-19.0% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-05? |
No |
210 |
0.380 |
$79.80 |
$-1.94 |
-2.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? |
Yes |
123 |
0.625 |
$76.88 |
$0.61 |
+0.8% |
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? |
No |
175 |
0.425 |
$74.38 |
$2.24 |
+3.1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? |
No |
136 |
0.520 |
$70.72 |
$-4.08 |
-5.5% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
299 |
0.230 |
$68.88 |
$-1.80 |
-2.5% |
| Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? |
Yes |
191 |
0.340 |
$64.95 |
$2.75 |
+4.4% |
| Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas? |
No |
238 |
0.270 |
$64.34 |
$-1.00 |
-1.5% |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
Yes |
300 |
0.210 |
$63.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,128 |
0.051 |
$57.42 |
$30.90 |
+116.5% |
| Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
No |
252 |
0.215 |
$54.18 |
$3.78 |
+7.5% |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m? |
No |
245 |
0.215 |
$52.67 |
$3.67 |
+7.5% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? |
Yes |
131 |
0.390 |
$51.02 |
$-19.19 |
-27.3% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? |
Up |
115 |
0.415 |
$47.72 |
$-33.92 |
-41.5% |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
299 |
0.155 |
$46.38 |
$-17.62 |
-27.5% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6? |
Yes |
299 |
0.145 |
$43.36 |
$-9.41 |
-17.8% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
Yes |
491 |
0.087 |
$42.70 |
$24.48 |
+134.4% |
| Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) |
Deportivo Toluca FC |
80 |
0.530 |
$42.40 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? |
Yes |
89 |
0.451 |
$40.14 |
$14.87 |
+58.8% |