| Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.605 |
$60.50 |
$10.50 |
+21.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
60 |
0.968 |
$58.05 |
$31.05 |
+115.0% |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.948 |
$56.88 |
$46.08 |
+426.7% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
No |
57 |
0.971 |
$55.32 |
$30.24 |
+120.6% |
| Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? |
No |
60 |
0.915 |
$54.90 |
$4.50 |
+8.9% |
| Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.865 |
$51.90 |
$15.90 |
+44.2% |
| Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? |
No |
60 |
0.865 |
$51.90 |
$1.50 |
+3.0% |
| Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $462,000 and $470,000 on September 30? |
No |
60 |
0.860 |
$51.60 |
$-2.40 |
-4.4% |
| Will Team Heretics Win VCT EMEA Stage 2 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.999 |
$49.92 |
$6.92 |
+16.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
50 |
0.998 |
$49.88 |
$7.88 |
+18.8% |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? |
No |
50 |
0.986 |
$49.30 |
$10.80 |
+28.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
75 |
0.650 |
$48.75 |
$-7.50 |
-13.3% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
50 |
0.975 |
$48.73 |
$42.73 |
+712.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
No |
50 |
0.970 |
$48.50 |
$40.00 |
+470.6% |
| Will Rafael Fiziev fight Dan Hooker next? |
No |
50 |
0.955 |
$47.73 |
$18.23 |
+61.8% |
| Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? |
No |
60 |
0.790 |
$47.40 |
$13.80 |
+41.1% |
| Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? |
Yes |
60 |
0.790 |
$47.40 |
$-1.20 |
-2.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
50 |
0.923 |
$46.15 |
$4.65 |
+11.2% |
| Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week? |
No |
50 |
0.915 |
$45.75 |
$0.75 |
+1.7% |
| Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%? |
No |
60 |
0.755 |
$45.30 |
$-5.70 |
-11.2% |
| Will Netflix win the most Emmys? |
No |
60 |
0.755 |
$45.30 |
$-0.90 |
-1.9% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in August? |
Yes |
50 |
0.905 |
$45.25 |
$17.25 |
+61.6% |
| Will Karmine Corp Win VCT EMEA Stage 2 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.740 |
$44.37 |
$-1.23 |
-2.7% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
50 |
0.860 |
$43.00 |
$3.00 |
+7.5% |
| Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.840 |
$42.00 |
$4.50 |
+12.0% |