John-Silver
0xe8c5827d987d9bf9e04102a2b84c7de426817a13
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$744
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$68
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
81%
61W / 14L · 65 open
Win Return (30d)
86%
121W / 19L
Trades (30d)
140
across 8 markets · ~18 per market
EV / position
+$185.94
avg win $261 · loss $38
Profit Factor
20.43
$782 won / $38 lost
Reward / Risk
6.81
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $855 · all-time $793,349
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Open positions
5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9,051 |
0.930 |
$8,421.89 |
$79.49 |
+1.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
12,308 |
0.620 |
$7,631.09 |
$-3,009.45 |
-28.3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.981 |
$980.50 |
$30.50 |
+3.2% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? |
Yes |
855 |
0.560 |
$478.93 |
$-68.42 |
-12.5% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
41 |
0.790 |
$32.58 |
$-1.65 |
-4.8% |