| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
37,642 |
0.625 |
$23,526.15 |
$-7,339.82 |
-23.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
28,788 |
0.515 |
$14,825.73 |
$1,061.90 |
+7.7% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
21,479 |
0.625 |
$13,424.56 |
$-104.82 |
-0.8% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
6,742 |
0.983 |
$6,623.75 |
$-0.38 |
-0.0% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
6,436 |
0.952 |
$6,124.33 |
$-41.43 |
-0.7% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
5,752 |
0.995 |
$5,720.13 |
$41.40 |
+0.7% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
5,829 |
0.976 |
$5,689.22 |
$94.21 |
+1.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
5,700 |
0.845 |
$4,816.49 |
$-375.24 |
-7.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
4,752 |
0.981 |
$4,659.46 |
$102.74 |
+2.3% |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
3,592 |
0.615 |
$2,208.88 |
$-527.61 |
-19.3% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,000 |
0.875 |
$1,749.99 |
$30.00 |
+1.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
1,000 |
0.968 |
$967.50 |
$3.50 |
+0.4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.455 |
$910.00 |
$-10.00 |
-1.1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? |
No |
600 |
0.985 |
$591.00 |
$1.80 |
+0.3% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
1,044 |
0.535 |
$558.41 |
$-99.16 |
-15.1% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
622 |
0.865 |
$538.10 |
$8.22 |
+1.6% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.930 |
$186.10 |
$2.10 |
+1.1% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
120 |
0.665 |
$79.81 |
$0.49 |
+0.6% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
No |
135 |
0.490 |
$66.14 |
$-33.86 |
-33.9% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
59 |
0.993 |
$58.78 |
$0.49 |
+0.8% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.335 |
$33.50 |
$1.50 |
+4.7% |
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? |
No |
19 |
0.760 |
$14.79 |
$-0.97 |
-6.2% |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.725 |
$7.25 |
$2.05 |
+39.4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? |
No |
3 |
0.966 |
$2.90 |
$0.05 |
+1.6% |