| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
37,642 |
0.615 |
$23,149.73 |
$-7,716.24 |
-25.0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
28,788 |
0.525 |
$15,113.61 |
$1,349.77 |
+9.8% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
21,479 |
0.635 |
$13,639.35 |
$109.97 |
+0.8% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
6,742 |
0.987 |
$6,650.72 |
$26.59 |
+0.4% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
6,436 |
0.954 |
$6,137.20 |
$-28.56 |
-0.5% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
5,752 |
0.996 |
$5,728.76 |
$50.02 |
+0.9% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
5,829 |
0.978 |
$5,700.88 |
$105.87 |
+1.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
5,700 |
0.835 |
$4,759.49 |
$-432.24 |
-8.3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
4,752 |
0.980 |
$4,657.08 |
$100.36 |
+2.2% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,000 |
0.870 |
$1,739.99 |
$20.00 |
+1.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
1,000 |
0.978 |
$977.50 |
$13.50 |
+1.4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.455 |
$910.00 |
$-10.00 |
-1.1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? |
No |
600 |
0.987 |
$591.90 |
$2.70 |
+0.5% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
1,044 |
0.525 |
$547.97 |
$-109.59 |
-16.7% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
622 |
0.865 |
$538.10 |
$8.22 |
+1.6% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.930 |
$186.10 |
$2.10 |
+1.1% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
No |
135 |
0.490 |
$66.14 |
$-33.86 |
-33.9% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
59 |
0.996 |
$58.95 |
$0.66 |
+1.1% |
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? |
No |
19 |
0.795 |
$15.47 |
$-0.29 |
-1.9% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.595 |
$11.91 |
$-1.32 |
-10.0% |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.725 |
$7.25 |
$2.05 |
+39.4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? |
No |
3 |
0.966 |
$2.90 |
$0.05 |
+1.6% |