| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
35,000 |
0.790 |
$27,667.50 |
$10,167.50 |
+58.1% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
35,000 |
0.209 |
$7,332.50 |
$-10,167.50 |
-58.1% |
| Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? |
No |
1,245 |
0.976 |
$1,215.36 |
$201.84 |
+19.9% |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? |
No |
1,713 |
0.665 |
$1,138.92 |
$18.31 |
+1.6% |
| Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections? |
Yes |
1,030 |
0.971 |
$999.91 |
$265.31 |
+36.1% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? |
Yes |
2,213 |
0.335 |
$741.36 |
$-97.72 |
-11.6% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? |
Yes |
1,285 |
0.495 |
$636.08 |
$180.88 |
+39.7% |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31? |
Yes |
866 |
0.728 |
$629.91 |
$-187.40 |
-22.9% |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
No |
1,872 |
0.285 |
$533.28 |
$-156.71 |
-22.7% |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
828 |
0.515 |
$426.24 |
$6.37 |
+1.5% |
| Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? |
No |
774 |
0.535 |
$414.11 |
$122.15 |
+41.8% |
| Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
No |
420 |
0.962 |
$403.83 |
$34.23 |
+9.3% |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? |
No |
307 |
0.903 |
$277.50 |
$12.86 |
+4.9% |
| Will Ryan Robertson win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election? |
No |
258 |
0.982 |
$253.50 |
$13.94 |
+5.8% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.250 |
$250.00 |
$-10.00 |
-3.8% |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? |
No |
753 |
0.235 |
$176.94 |
$42.82 |
+31.9% |
| Will the Total Solar Eclipse be highly visible in Reykjavík? |
Yes |
433 |
0.365 |
$158.03 |
$-86.78 |
-35.4% |
| Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.680 |
$136.00 |
$108.00 |
+385.7% |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
1,300 |
0.100 |
$130.02 |
$-89.74 |
-40.8% |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin 74%-76%? |
Yes |
198 |
0.650 |
$128.50 |
$17.37 |
+15.6% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.115 |
$115.00 |
$-85.00 |
-42.5% |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July? |
No |
155 |
0.695 |
$107.71 |
$7.41 |
+7.4% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
774 |
0.135 |
$104.49 |
$-121.40 |
-53.7% |
| Will Uber say "Waymo" during earnings call? |
Yes |
100 |
0.920 |
$92.00 |
$2.06 |
+2.3% |
| Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? |
Yes |
199 |
0.460 |
$91.32 |
$49.21 |
+116.8% |