| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.935 |
$1,402.50 |
$-7.50 |
-0.5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
1,575 |
0.685 |
$1,078.68 |
$0.97 |
+0.1% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
1,110 |
0.855 |
$949.01 |
$179.75 |
+23.4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,030 |
0.855 |
$880.64 |
$-35.45 |
-3.9% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
800 |
0.845 |
$675.99 |
$148.00 |
+28.0% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
459 |
0.900 |
$412.67 |
$-9.17 |
-2.2% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1,770 |
0.117 |
$206.21 |
$-42.09 |
-17.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.835 |
$167.00 |
$3.00 |
+1.8% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
939 |
0.115 |
$107.93 |
$-112.28 |
-51.0% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? |
Yes |
340 |
0.235 |
$79.89 |
$8.50 |
+11.9% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
200 |
0.390 |
$77.95 |
$2.00 |
+2.6% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.023 |
$48.30 |
$7.80 |
+19.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.165 |
$33.00 |
$-1.00 |
-2.9% |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? |
Yes |
621 |
0.050 |
$31.05 |
$-45.95 |
-59.7% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,800 |
0.009 |
$26.60 |
$-8.20 |
-23.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.019 |
$15.60 |
$-30.00 |
-65.8% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.037 |
$13.12 |
$-2.62 |
-16.7% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
159 |
0.043 |
$6.92 |
$-25.12 |
-78.4% |