| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.935 |
$1,402.50 |
$-7.50 |
-0.5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
1,575 |
0.685 |
$1,078.68 |
$0.97 |
+0.1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,030 |
0.845 |
$870.34 |
$-45.75 |
-5.0% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
1,110 |
0.775 |
$860.22 |
$90.96 |
+11.8% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
800 |
0.840 |
$671.99 |
$144.00 |
+27.3% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
459 |
0.905 |
$414.96 |
$-6.88 |
-1.6% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1,770 |
0.117 |
$206.21 |
$-42.09 |
-17.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.835 |
$167.00 |
$3.00 |
+1.8% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
939 |
0.115 |
$107.93 |
$-112.28 |
-51.0% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? |
Yes |
340 |
0.235 |
$79.89 |
$8.50 |
+11.9% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
200 |
0.315 |
$62.96 |
$-12.99 |
-17.1% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.023 |
$48.30 |
$7.80 |
+19.3% |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? |
Yes |
621 |
0.055 |
$34.16 |
$-42.84 |
-55.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.165 |
$33.00 |
$-1.00 |
-2.9% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
2,800 |
0.009 |
$26.60 |
$-8.20 |
-23.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.019 |
$15.60 |
$-30.00 |
-65.8% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.037 |
$13.12 |
$-2.62 |
-16.7% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
159 |
0.043 |
$6.92 |
$-25.12 |
-78.4% |