| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
549 |
0.300 |
$164.65 |
$22.45 |
+15.8% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
No |
429 |
0.210 |
$90.10 |
$0.10 |
+0.1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.125 |
$62.50 |
$12.50 |
+25.0% |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? |
No |
136 |
0.335 |
$45.73 |
$-1.92 |
-4.0% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
192 |
0.177 |
$34.00 |
$-66.00 |
-66.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
No |
133 |
0.223 |
$29.64 |
$-23.98 |
-44.7% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
Yes |
105 |
0.255 |
$26.90 |
$-8.04 |
-23.0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.075 |
$22.50 |
$-16.50 |
-42.3% |
| Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
71 |
0.315 |
$22.36 |
$6.74 |
+43.2% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
175 |
0.115 |
$20.11 |
$-1.63 |
-7.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
No |
200 |
0.080 |
$15.90 |
$3.90 |
+32.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? |
Yes |
30 |
0.520 |
$15.60 |
$10.50 |
+205.9% |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
456 |
0.032 |
$14.37 |
$-35.63 |
-71.3% |
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31? |
No |
1 |
0.680 |
$0.81 |
$0.50 |
+160.2% |