| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
549 |
0.300 |
$164.65 |
$22.45 |
+15.8% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
No |
429 |
0.210 |
$90.10 |
$0.10 |
+0.1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.135 |
$67.50 |
$17.50 |
+35.0% |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? |
No |
136 |
0.330 |
$45.05 |
$-2.61 |
-5.5% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
192 |
0.177 |
$33.90 |
$-66.10 |
-66.1% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
No |
133 |
0.224 |
$29.77 |
$-23.84 |
-44.5% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
Yes |
105 |
0.260 |
$27.43 |
$-7.52 |
-21.5% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.075 |
$22.50 |
$-16.50 |
-42.3% |
| Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
71 |
0.315 |
$22.36 |
$6.74 |
+43.2% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
175 |
0.115 |
$20.11 |
$-1.63 |
-7.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? |
No |
200 |
0.081 |
$16.10 |
$4.10 |
+34.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? |
Yes |
30 |
0.510 |
$15.30 |
$10.20 |
+200.0% |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
456 |
0.032 |
$14.37 |
$-35.63 |
-71.3% |
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31? |
No |
1 |
0.675 |
$0.80 |
$0.49 |
+158.3% |