ExcaIibur
0xe2bfd02d9977bb53e5b9abf6e70b49264d0f75b5
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$1,626
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$369
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-16.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
22%
12W / 43L · 25 open
Win Return (30d)
19%
15W / 65L
Trades (30d)
80
across 18 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$125.06
avg win $44 · loss $200
Profit Factor
0.10
$175 won / $1,800 lost
Reward / Risk
0.22
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$55
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $21 · all-time $595,232
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
| Category |
Win Resolved (per trade) |
Markets |
Volume |
|
🌐 All markets
|
16.9%
42W/207L
|
62 |
$84,299 |
|
🏛 Politics
|
0.0%
0W/1L
|
3 |
$261 |
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
3 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
614 |
0.290 |
$178.03 |
$-289.78 |
-61.9% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
125 |
0.710 |
$89.01 |
$34.70 |
+63.9% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
150 |
0.235 |
$35.25 |
$-11.25 |
-24.2% |