| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
44,404 |
0.790 |
$35,101.14 |
$12,899.28 |
+58.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
33,164 |
0.845 |
$28,023.39 |
$267.80 |
+1.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
128,763 |
0.175 |
$22,533.52 |
$5,841.85 |
+35.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
20,000 |
0.675 |
$13,500.33 |
$2,058.71 |
+18.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
30,000 |
0.445 |
$13,349.97 |
$-91.53 |
-0.7% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
15,000 |
0.715 |
$10,725.00 |
$1,334.67 |
+14.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
12,031 |
0.795 |
$9,564.50 |
$2,734.98 |
+40.0% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
44,404 |
0.209 |
$9,302.58 |
$-12,899.28 |
-58.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
No |
8,016 |
0.981 |
$7,859.27 |
$149.38 |
+1.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
7,043 |
0.999 |
$7,035.65 |
$60.24 |
+0.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
16,029 |
0.385 |
$6,171.01 |
$-769.97 |
-11.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
20,008 |
0.305 |
$6,102.44 |
$1,802.98 |
+41.9% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
No |
6,000 |
0.984 |
$5,904.00 |
$34.00 |
+0.6% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
No |
5,000 |
0.865 |
$4,325.00 |
$25.00 |
+0.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
4,000 |
1.000 |
$3,998.00 |
$10.01 |
+0.3% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
4,000 |
0.955 |
$3,820.00 |
$20.00 |
+0.5% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
9,000 |
0.400 |
$3,600.06 |
$443.83 |
+14.1% |
| US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? |
No |
3,234 |
0.969 |
$3,132.08 |
$14.03 |
+0.4% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.375 |
$3,000.00 |
$40.00 |
+1.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.400 |
$2,796.66 |
$1,009.85 |
+56.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
3,288 |
0.840 |
$2,761.90 |
$565.89 |
+25.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
92,465 |
0.028 |
$2,542.78 |
$162.74 |
+6.8% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? |
No |
2,051 |
0.971 |
$1,990.10 |
$3.23 |
+0.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.975 |
$1,949.00 |
$19.00 |
+1.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
35,000 |
0.056 |
$1,942.50 |
$-848.78 |
-30.4% |