| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
20,000 |
0.875 |
$17,500.01 |
$6,250.02 |
+55.6% |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? |
No |
13,467 |
0.907 |
$12,214.90 |
$4,516.67 |
+58.7% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
6,868 |
0.978 |
$6,713.47 |
$3,279.47 |
+95.5% |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
4,969 |
0.973 |
$4,832.43 |
$2,910.54 |
+151.4% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
2,500 |
0.723 |
$1,806.25 |
$306.25 |
+20.4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
2,810 |
0.615 |
$1,728.12 |
$534.25 |
+44.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
5,610 |
0.259 |
$1,450.08 |
$360.89 |
+33.1% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? |
No |
1,605 |
0.719 |
$1,154.05 |
$-36.72 |
-3.1% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
No |
1,208 |
0.915 |
$1,105.62 |
$723.12 |
+189.1% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.615 |
$922.51 |
$856.09 |
+1288.9% |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.915 |
$915.50 |
$415.50 |
+83.1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
3,283 |
0.225 |
$738.60 |
$171.64 |
+30.3% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
3,500 |
0.189 |
$659.73 |
$353.52 |
+115.5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.645 |
$644.99 |
$220.00 |
+51.8% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
1,750 |
0.360 |
$629.85 |
$-296.07 |
-32.0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
3,364 |
0.165 |
$555.02 |
$145.42 |
+35.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
13,435 |
0.040 |
$537.38 |
$-55.75 |
-9.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
750 |
0.685 |
$513.76 |
$468.76 |
+1041.7% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.954 |
$476.76 |
$31.75 |
+7.1% |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? |
No |
490 |
0.861 |
$421.76 |
$37.01 |
+9.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
690 |
0.545 |
$376.06 |
$-83.23 |
-18.1% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
690 |
0.485 |
$334.74 |
$106.98 |
+47.0% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
750 |
0.445 |
$333.75 |
$283.83 |
+568.5% |
| Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
22,168 |
0.015 |
$321.43 |
$226.46 |
+238.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
Yes |
12,576 |
0.024 |
$301.82 |
$-216.09 |
-41.7% |