BielBitcoin
0xe0c19393a74a5057d79a395e10553f16fd477eda
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$58
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
65%
240W / 127L
Win Return (30d)
65%
240W / 127L
Trades (30d)
367
across 50 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
−$1.17
avg win $23 · loss $148
Profit Factor
0.94
$975 won / $1,033 lost
Reward / Risk
0.15
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$201
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $13,957 · all-time $419,918
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
| Category |
Win Resolved (per trade) |
Markets |
Volume |
|
🌐 All markets
|
64.4%
577W/319L
|
129 |
$45,561 |
|
🌤 Weather
|
93.5%
87W/6L
|
18 |
$6,818 |
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
3 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
552 |
0.135 |
$74.23 |
$-9.49 |
-11.3% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 6? |
No |
36 |
0.990 |
$36.03 |
$0.71 |
+2.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
Yes |
194 |
0.095 |
$18.40 |
$-23.28 |
-55.8% |