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variant1.meta

0xdf59c7f09a1f0fe407a9fb48f7282012398adeb0
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$194
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$53
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-7.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
59%
16W / 11L · 50 open
Win Return (30d)
47%
36W / 41L
Trades (30d)
77
across 30 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$19.38
avg win $36 · loss $75
Profit Factor
0.48
$179 won / $373 lost
Reward / Risk
0.48
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $8,840 · all-time $288,868

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 65.3% 62W/33L 63 $17,682
🏛 Politics 7 $853
💵 Economy 1 $162

Open positions

18 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 1,000 0.705 $705.27 $-17.15 -2.4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 700 0.925 $647.50 $14.50 +2.3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 953 0.605 $576.63 $-7.01 -1.2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 552 0.905 $499.24 $86.96 +21.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 468 0.845 $395.40 $30.88 +8.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 941 0.385 $362.29 $-49.70 -12.1%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 544 0.665 $361.64 $-5.81 -1.6%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No 562 0.630 $354.06 $112.61 +46.6%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No 349 0.905 $315.85 $92.36 +41.3%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No 1,029 0.290 $298.41 $-168.99 -36.2%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 258 0.918 $237.24 $29.83 +14.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 150 0.962 $144.22 $28.72 +24.9%
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 200 0.675 $135.00 $-3.00 -2.2%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No 259 0.515 $133.58 $45.48 +51.6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No 200 0.655 $131.00 $21.00 +19.1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 125 0.905 $113.13 $14.38 +14.6%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 116 0.875 $101.77 $1.77 +1.8%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 346 0.105 $36.35 $-55.27 -60.3%