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Trader leaderboard/variant1.meta

variant1.meta

0xdf59c7f09a1f0fe407a9fb48f7282012398adeb0
PnL (30d)
−$254
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$299
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
65%
62W / 33L · 110 open
Win Return (30d)
57%
117W / 88L
Trades (30d)
205
across 63 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$9.07
avg win $32 · loss $73
Profit Factor
0.68
$548 won / $802 lost
Reward / Risk
0.44
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $5,889 · all-time $285,916

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 65.3% 62W/33L 63 $17,682
🏛 Politics 7 $888
💵 Economy 1 $162

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No 875 0.915 $800.62 $240.32 +42.9%
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 1,000 0.705 $705.27 $-17.15 -2.4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 700 0.925 $647.50 $14.50 +2.3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 953 0.605 $576.63 $-7.01 -1.2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 552 0.895 $493.72 $81.44 +19.8%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No 800 0.600 $480.00 $136.30 +39.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 468 0.835 $390.72 $26.20 +7.2%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 544 0.670 $364.36 $-3.09 -0.8%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? No 665 0.525 $349.14 $123.27 +54.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No 1,029 0.285 $293.16 $-174.23 -37.3%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 258 0.919 $237.37 $29.96 +14.4%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15? No 250 0.945 $236.25 $71.25 +43.2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes 791 0.277 $218.60 $-27.55 -11.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 150 0.959 $143.78 $28.27 +24.5%
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 200 0.675 $135.00 $-3.00 -2.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No 200 0.635 $127.00 $17.00 +15.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 300 0.385 $115.50 $-46.50 -28.7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 125 0.905 $113.13 $14.38 +14.6%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 116 0.875 $101.77 $1.77 +1.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 100 0.435 $43.50 $-3.50 -7.4%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 346 0.105 $36.35 $-55.27 -60.3%