wisechinaman
0xdec2a6879cf654e6bc2c0e125f65b2fa3e27b015
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$480
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$91
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-13.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
39%
31W / 49L · 5 open
Win Return (30d)
36%
31W / 54L
Trades (30d)
85
across 22 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$25.28
avg win $37 · loss $81
Profit Factor
0.41
$331 won / $811 lost
Reward / Risk
0.45
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$725
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $6,723 · all-time $712,454
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
6 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
5,000 |
0.883 |
$4,417.50 |
$1,917.50 |
+76.7% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.117 |
$582.50 |
$-1,917.50 |
-76.7% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.495 |
$495.00 |
$-35.00 |
-6.6% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? |
No |
800 |
0.435 |
$348.00 |
$110.00 |
+46.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,200 |
0.038 |
$123.20 |
$-532.79 |
-81.2% |
| Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? |
Yes |
113 |
0.390 |
$44.13 |
$-38.30 |
-46.5% |