| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
Yes |
6,504 |
0.986 |
$6,413.11 |
$433.43 |
+7.2% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? |
Yes |
2,267 |
0.833 |
$1,888.33 |
$181.03 |
+10.6% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? |
No |
1,869 |
0.875 |
$1,635.80 |
$266.78 |
+19.5% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? |
No |
1,288 |
0.988 |
$1,271.55 |
$70.66 |
+5.9% |
| Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.9% and 1.1%? |
No |
452 |
0.963 |
$435.53 |
$107.99 |
+33.0% |
| Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%? |
No |
434 |
0.725 |
$314.37 |
$2.17 |
+0.7% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
16,270 |
0.013 |
$219.64 |
$-141.06 |
-39.1% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
11,402 |
0.006 |
$68.41 |
$-298.77 |
-81.4% |
| Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31? |
Yes |
90 |
0.715 |
$64.24 |
$-0.55 |
-0.9% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? |
Yes |
1,502 |
0.025 |
$38.14 |
$-11.41 |
-23.0% |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? |
Yes |
107 |
0.335 |
$35.75 |
$2.27 |
+6.8% |
| GTA VI released before November 2026? |
Yes |
955 |
0.029 |
$27.22 |
$-162.48 |
-85.7% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? |
Yes |
1,963 |
0.013 |
$24.53 |
$-469.19 |
-95.0% |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
12,980 |
0.002 |
$19.47 |
$-311.53 |
-94.1% |
| Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
2,295 |
0.002 |
$3.44 |
$-8.03 |
-70.0% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
No |
30 |
0.014 |
$0.41 |
$-13.19 |
-97.0% |