| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
3,628 |
0.999 |
$3,622.18 |
$1,084.69 |
+42.7% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? |
No |
2,715 |
0.835 |
$2,267.15 |
$323.31 |
+16.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
2,306 |
0.825 |
$1,902.47 |
$177.55 |
+10.3% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,329 |
0.853 |
$1,133.07 |
$72.47 |
+6.8% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
806 |
0.994 |
$801.09 |
$116.05 |
+16.9% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
903 |
0.785 |
$709.21 |
$411.18 |
+138.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.865 |
$692.00 |
$80.00 |
+13.1% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? |
Yes |
3,015 |
0.175 |
$527.62 |
$-160.29 |
-23.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,307 |
0.215 |
$496.07 |
$-92.30 |
-15.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
830 |
0.485 |
$402.46 |
$-68.76 |
-14.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
400 |
0.999 |
$399.40 |
$184.34 |
+85.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.966 |
$386.40 |
$50.40 |
+15.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
404 |
0.940 |
$380.10 |
$106.20 |
+38.8% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
500 |
0.625 |
$312.50 |
$115.95 |
+59.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.725 |
$290.00 |
$38.00 |
+15.1% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
300 |
0.955 |
$286.52 |
$52.78 |
+22.6% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
No |
500 |
0.530 |
$265.00 |
$84.88 |
+47.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
426 |
0.615 |
$261.97 |
$87.88 |
+50.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
276 |
0.940 |
$259.78 |
$143.71 |
+123.8% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
293 |
0.855 |
$250.55 |
$27.55 |
+12.4% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
502 |
0.485 |
$243.51 |
$-52.57 |
-17.8% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
No |
500 |
0.420 |
$210.00 |
$-60.62 |
-22.4% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
1,372 |
0.145 |
$198.90 |
$-29.77 |
-13.0% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
815 |
0.210 |
$171.18 |
$-332.66 |
-66.0% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
306 |
0.515 |
$157.62 |
$-47.18 |
-23.0% |